Action needed to achieve tripling of global nuclear capacity target, says NEA

The report - Nuclear Energy Outlook: Global Installed Capacity to 2050 and Beyond - assesses the current status and future trajectory of nuclear generating capacity worldwide.

The goal of at least tripling global nuclear capacity - currently almost 400 GWe - by 2050 has been endorsed by more than 30 countries since the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai in December 2023.

The Nuclear Energy Agency's (NEA's) analysis of future global nuclear capacity is built around four scenarios that describe how global installed nuclear capacity could evolve to 2050 and beyond, taking into account refurbishments and long-term operations of the existing nuclear reactor fleet, as well as new builds of gigawatt-scale and small modular reactors (SMRs). In the Low Scenario, global installed nuclear capacity falls to 347 GWe by 2050, as retirements in OECD countries offset new projects and recent momentum fails to translate into sustained deployment. In the Current Trends Scenario, global capacity reaches 619 GWe, driven largely by non-OECD planned and proposed projects. In the Ambitious Scenario, global capacity reaches 883 GWe, with a larger contribution from new build and SMRs. In the Transformative Scenario, global capacity reaches about 1,324 GWe by 2050, more than tripling global capacity - it requires deployment rates that far exceed recent experience and, in OECD countries, would require a major step change in project execution, industrial capability and financing.

Long-term operation of the existing nuclear fleet remains a key factor in meeting global nuclear capacity targets, the NEA says. Many reactors in OECD countries will reach the end of their initial licences before 2040. Extending operations to 60 years and, increasingly, 80 years could preserve reliable low-carbon capacity, support energy security and avoid the need to replace large volumes of firm generation at short notice. However, the report estimates that plants representing more than 50 GWe of OECD nuclear capacity have not yet secured licences to operate to 2040. "Renewing the licences of plants capable of continued operations is essential," it says.

Challenges related to supply chain and workforce capacity must also be overcome if higher deployment scenarios are to be delivered. In many OECD countries, limited new build over the past 25 years has weakened industrial capabilities and project delivery experience, the report says. "Meeting this challenge will require close co-operation among like-minded countries, stronger industrial partnerships and a shift from project-by-project approaches to programme-based deployment."

The NEA says financing will also be a decisive factor. Recent global capital expenditure on new nuclear has averaged about USD30 billion per year, mainly driven by China and Russia. "To meet higher deployment scenarios, this will need to rise sharply," it says. For OECD countries, annual capital requirements would need to increase from about USD12 billion per year over the last decade to an average of USD68 billion in the Ambitious Scenario and USD143 billion in the Transformative Scenario. During the 2030s, the Transformative Scenario could see OECD capital requirements approach USD200 billion per year. Mobilising private capital will be essential. "This will require bankable project structures, clear risk allocation, credible revenue models and government-backed mechanisms that reduce construction, market and political risks."

The NEA says the report "highlights that closing the gap between ambition and delivery will require concerted efforts by governments, industry and financial institutions. Only together can the existing barriers to deployment be overcome, and support for the next phase of nuclear energy's development secured".

"The future of nuclear energy will not be shaped by ambition alone, but by the ability to deliver projects successfully and at scale," says NEA Director-General William Magwood in the report's foreword. "By systematically tracking progress and identifying the opportunities and challenges ahead, this report aims to support informed decision-making and, ultimately, to help enable the future global expansion of nuclear energy."

In its inaugural World Nuclear Outlook Report, released in January, World Nuclear Association compiled national government targets and goals for nuclear capacity for 2050 and assessed them alongside plans for continued and extended operation of existing reactors, completion of those under construction, and realisation of planned and proposed projects. It found global generating capacity could reach 1,446 GWe by 2050 if governments hit their targets for new nuclear, far exceeding the 1,200 GWe goal set in the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy.

World Nuclear Association's report said that achieving the projected 2050 capacity requires scaling annual grid connections from 14.4 GWe per year in 2026-2030, to 22.3 GWe per year in 2031-2035, to 49.2 GWe per year in 2036-2040, 51.6 GWe per year in 2041-2045 and 65.3 GWe per year in 2046-2050. It noted that the required 65.3 GWe per year during 2046-2050 is "roughly double the historic peak build rate seen in the 1980s".