The publication of the 45th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 and its findings were announced by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi on the opening day of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference in Vienna, Austria.
At the end of 2024 there were 417 nuclear power reactors operational, providing that global capacity of 377 GW. A further 62 reactors, with a total capacity of 64.4 GW, were under construction, and 23 reactors with a total capacity of 19.7 GW were in suspended operation, the report says.
In addition to the high case scenario, the IAEA has also increased its low case projection with a 50% capacity increase to 561 GW by 2050. One big difference between the high case and low case scenarios is the role played by small modular reactors (SMRs) - the high case sees 24% of 2050's new capacity being provided by SMRs, while the low case sees SMRs providing just 5% of capacity added.
It is the fifth successive year that there has been an upward revision in the projections. The first upwards revision following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident came in 2021 and since then the high case projection for 2050 has risen by 25% from 792 GW.
Grossi said: "The IAEA's steadily rising annual projections underscore a growing global consensus: nuclear power is indispensable for achieving clean, reliable and sustainable energy for all."
The publication, which is put together by an international group of experts, develops its estimates by considering all operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible and planned construction projects foreseen for the next few decades. The low case assumptions are that current trends continue and there are few changes in laws, policies and regulations. The high case assumptions include national intentions for expanding the use of nuclear power and the "high case projection remains both plausible and technically feasible and notes the possibility for capacity to exceed this estimate".
Enabling factors, such as national policies, supporting investment and workforce development - plus regulatory collaboration and global harmonisation - would be necessary to help facilitate at least reaching the high case.
(Image: Screenshot of IAEA report)
Jessica Callen-Kovtunova, Energy Planner/ Economist at the IAEA, said that the context of this year's estimate included the increasingly positive global climate for investment, noting the demand from tech companies and the increasing forecast for future electricity demand as well as the decision of multilateral development banks - such as the World Bank - to look at backing lifetime extensions of existing nuclear plants and developing advanced modular reactors.
She also set out the scale of the challenge, noting that the high scenario would need an average of 26 GW of new capacity per year, compared with the average of 5.9 GW of new capacity each year over the past five years. Total electricity production from all energy sources increased by about 3.4% in 2024, with electricity production from nuclear power reactors up by 2.8%, meaning a slight drop in total share to 8.7%.
The report stresses the importance of extending the lifetime of existing plants: "Currently, about two thirds of the nuclear power capacity has been in operation for more than 30 years and about 40% for more than 40 years, highlighting the need for significant new nuclear capacity to offset retirements in the long term. Extending the lifetime of existing reactors is the most cost effective way to produce low emission electricity and is particularly important for those regions with ageing nuclear fleets."
In the high case, it is assumed that the operating lifetimes of most nuclear power reactors will be extended such that only about 81 GWe of the 2024 nuclear electrical generating capacity is retired by 2050. In the low case, more retirements are assumed, with 156 GWe of the 2024 nuclear electrical generating capacity retired by 2050. This is projected to result in net capacity additions (newly installed less retired) of 184 GWe by 2050.
Although the projections are based on each country's plans, the projections are published at a regional rather than at country levels:
The largest increase in capacity is projected by the IAEA to come in the Central and Eastern Asia region, where total electrical generating capacity is projected to increase by 15% by 2030 and by 45% by 2050. The high case has nuclear electrical generating capacity projected to increase to 3.5 times the 2024 capacity by 2050. In the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 2.6 times the 2024 capacity by 2050.
In his opening address to the 69th IAEA General Conference, Grossi said: "Everywhere I go, people are talking about wanting nuclear energy. In Africa, Europe, the Americas and Asia interest is growing. How do you finance a nuclear power plant? What are the necessary legal instruments and regulatory institutions? When will Small Modular Reactors come on the market?
"These are some of the questions we field every day, not only because the IAEA is the centre of global nuclear, but also because building nuclear capacity is not as simple as flipping a light switch. Here are the top three keys to unlocking global nuclear capacity: Newcomer countries require support; regulation must adapt; and financing needs to be made possible. In all three areas the IAEA is working full steam ahead.
"Today, nearly 40 countries are at different stages of development, from carrying out initial studies to constructing their first plants. More than 20 others are exploring nuclear as part of their future energy mix."
